Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 07 Jan 2026 23:31 UT)

Activity 07 Jan: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 135/89

Solar Forecast

(last updated 07 Jan 2026 23:31 UT)

08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan Activity R1 R1 R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 132/86 130/84 130/84 COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level throughout UT day 07-Jan, with a C7.4 flare from Active Region (AR) 4334 (S15E08, beta) being the largest observed over the past 24 hours. This region is one of six numbered regions on the visible solar disk, with nearby AR 4336 (S09E41, beta) the largest and most magnetically complex. Both of these regions have remained mostly stable over the past UT day, with a redistribution of minor spots in both regions observed. A new active region emerged at N30W35, and appears to have a beta magnetic classification. All other regions appear stable or in decay, with four regions expected to rotate off the solar disk over the next UT day. Solar conditions are expected to reach R1 levels over 08-10 Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed throughout 07-Jan, and are forecast to continue at the S0 level over the period 08-10 Jan. Two faint Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over the last 24 hours. The first occurred at 07/0423UT in the southeast, appearing coincident with a low C-class flare in AR 4334. The second occurred at 07/1100UT, also appearing to originate from AR 4334. While these are both expected to miss the Earth, a small component of these CMEs may impact the Earth on 09-Jan. However, any effects from these CMEs will likely be secondary to high-speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole expected to connect with the Earth during this time. The solar wind speed was light over the last UT day, consistently ranging between 320-360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 10 nT during 07-Jan, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -8 and +7 nT, and a prolonged period of southward Bz observed since 07/2030UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly light during 08-Jan, with a potential increase late in the UT day due to an equatorial coronal hole that will move into a geoeffective position by 09-Jan. The solar wind speed will then increase over 09-10 Jan due the high-speed wind stream effects of this coronal hole.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.