Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 15 Jul 2024 23:30 UT)

Activity 15 Jul: Moderate Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.2 0345UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M2.7 0937UT possible lower Mid East/Indian Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 233/183

Solar Forecast

(last updated 15 Jul 2024 23:30 UT)

16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 235/185 235/185 230/180 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Jul was R1, with three low-level M-class solar flares. All flares originated from AR3738 (S11W67, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently eleven numbered sunspots on the solar disk. Most regions have shown rapid changes over the past day, with many new regions growing. AR3738, AR3743 (S07W16, beta-gamma) and AR3751 (S09W64, beta-gamma) are the most complex regions on the disk and have the most flare potential. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 16-18 Jul with a chance for R3. A narrow but dark dimming event was observed at 14/2159 UT near AR3744 (N16E10, beta). While no associated CME can be observed, image quality at this time is severely degraded. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on UT day 15-Jul. A weak and narrow CME was observed in association with the M2 flare from AR3738 from 0936 UT, however it is directed well to the west. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 15-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 16-18 Jul. The solar wind environment on UT day 15-Jul was near background levels. The solar wind speed ranged between 290 to 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +4 to -7 nT, with a mild shock at 15/2130 UT. The solar wind environment is expected to be near background levels over 16-18 Jul.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.