Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 03 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 03 Jan: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 165/119

Solar Forecast

(last updated 03 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)

04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114 COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level on UT day 03-Jan, with only C-class flares observed. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions and two unnumbered regions on the solar disk, with Active Region (AR) 4325 (S09W34, beta) being the largest and most magnetically complex. It has continued to show minor decay over the last 24 hours, but has produced several C-class flares. Region 4333 (S10W09, beta) exhibited significant growth over the same period. A new small active region has appeared at N07W29, and shows a beta magnetic classification. All other regions appear stable or in decay. Solar activity is forecast to be at the R1 level, with a chance of R2 activity over 04-06 Jan due to the ongoing activity in AR 4324 and 4325. Solar radiation storm conditions were at the S0 level during UT day 03-Jan, and S0 conditions are forecast to continue over the period 04-06 Jan. No new geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24 hours. A glancing impact from a CME first observed at 01/1936UT is expected to arrive at Earth during UT day 04-Jan. The solar wind speed was elevated at the beginning of UT day 03-Jan, likely due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 31-Dec. The solar wind speed declined from 600-650 km/s early in the UT day as the CME effects waned, and has ranged between 450-500 km/s over the last six hours. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 9 nT during 03-Jan, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -7 and +6 nT during this time. There were also periods of extended southward Bz between 03/1200UT and 03/1600UT. The solar wind speed is forecast to decline during the early part of 04-Jan, and increase later in the UT day due to the arrival of the second CME. Conditions will ease over 05-06 Jan as the effects of this CME subside.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.