Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 05 Jul 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 05 Jul: R2 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.0 04/2349UT possible lower West Pacific M1.4 0031UT possible lower West Pacific M1.3 0433UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M2.7 0539UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M1.0 0726UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M1.4 1100UT possible lower European M1.4 1632UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic M5.3 1757UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic M1.4 1907UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American M1.0 2123UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 139/93

Solar Forecast

(last updated 05 Jul 2026 23:30 UT)

06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 130/84 120/72 125/78 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 5-Jul was R2, with eight low-level M-class solar flares and one moderate M5.5 class solar flare. A majority of these flare events were produced by active sunspot region (AR) 4479 (N17W89, beta-gamma), although some contributions came from new region AR 4482 (S08E63, beta-gamma). There are currently five numbered sunspot regions on the disk. ARs 4478 (S06W70, beta) and 4479 are due to rotate out of sight in the next 24 hours, leaving AR 4482 as the most complex region visible. For this reason, solar flare activity may be R1-R2 over 6-8 Jul, however the frequency is likely to decrease early on in this period. A CME launched on 4-Jul associated with the X1.3 flare has now been analysed and not expected to be geoeffective. Several other CMEs were observed on UT day 5-Jul, but none are considered to be geoeffective. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 5-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 6-8 Jul. The solar wind environment on UT day 5-Jul was mostly near background levels, as the expected CME arrivals have likely failed to eventuate. The solar wind solar ranged initially from 570 to now near 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -5 nT. The solar wind is expected to be near background levels on 6-Jul. A disturbance may begin late on 7-Jul due to a glancing blow from a CME launched on 3-Jul, followed by entry into a coronal hole wind stream late on 8-Jul.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.