Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 12 Nov 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 12 Nov: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 116/68

Solar Forecast

(last updated 12 Nov 2026 23:30 UT)

13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54 COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 12-Nov, with the largest flare observed a C7.0 which peaked at 12/0344UT. There are currently seven numbered and two unnumbered Active Regions (ARs) visible on the solar disk. AR 4566 (S07W50, beta-gamma) significantly decayed over the past 24 hours, and continued to magnetically simplify as it rotated towards the western limb. Despite this, it remained relatively flare active and was responsible for all C-class flares observed over the UT day. Newly numbered AR 4576 (S20W08, beta) showed signs of mild growth. Two new smaller regions appeared on the disk near S04E35 and S08W05, both with beta magnetic classifications, and also exhibited signs of growth. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast to be at the R0 level over 13-15 Nov, with a chance of R1 due to the number of sunspot regions currently on the solar surface and the continued flare activity from AR 4566. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 12-Nov and expected to continue over 13-15 Nov. There were no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed over UT day 12-Nov. The solar wind speed on 12-Nov declined, ranging between 505 km/s and 415 km/s, and is currently near 425 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) ranged from -3 to +3 nT. The solar wind speed is forecast to continue to trend toward ambient levels over 13-14 Nov, with a mild increase possible late on 15-Nov as Earth connects with a small southern coronal hole high-speed wind stream.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.