Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 29 Sep 2022 23:31 UT)
Activity 29 Sep: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 137/91
Solar Forecast
(last updated 29 Sep 2022 23:31 UT)
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct Activity R0 R0 R0-R1 Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible 10.7cm/SSN 148/102 146/100 146/100 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Sep was at R0 levels, with several low to mid level C-class flares. Most of the C class flare activity appears to be associated with the return of previously flare active solar region AR3098 to the northeast solar limb. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, none of which are particularly significant. Solar region AR3105(S16W56,beta) is declining, AR3111(N27E46, alpha) is growing, other regions have been stable. Solar activity is expected to increase in coming days due to the apparent return of AR3098, with isolated R1 class activity becoming more likely. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A small solar filament located at N60E05 erupted at 29/0300-0400UT, and was associated with a very minor faint steeply northwest directed coronal mass ejection, which is not considered geoeffective. Several CMEs were observed off the northeast limb in LASCO and STERO-A imagery. These CMEs are likely to be associated with returning AR3098, and are all considered non-geoeffective. The strongest northeast CME was observed from 29/1236UT in LASCO C2 imagery, and modelling shows an Earth miss. The second hole of a pair of equatorial coronal holes is currently crossing the solar central meridian. The solar wind speed on 29-Sep varied between 550 to 454 km/s, with an increase in wind speed observed after 29/1000UT and is currently near 500 km/s. The peak interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to further increase over 30-Sep and to remain elevated over 01-02 Oct, due to a coronal hole high speed wind streams from the pair of coronal holes.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
