Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 01 Feb 2023 23:30 UT)

Activity 01 Feb: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 134/88

Solar Forecast

(last updated 01 Feb 2023 23:30 UT)

02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb Activity R0 R0 R0 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 140/94 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Feb was at the R0 level, with mostly low level C-class flares. The largest flare was a C5.7 at 01/2248UT from an active region beyond the western limb. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3207 (S11E51, beta) has exhibited growth in its trailer spots over the 24-hour period. A new unnumbered region recently appeared at N27E68 (beta) and has shown minor growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 02-04 Feb. A northwest CME was observed, visible in LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery from 01/0754UT. This CME is associated with a prominence eruption visible in GOES-SUVI imagery from 01/0601UT. The bulk of this material is from the farside and thus this CME is not considered geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Feb was initially elevated with a declining trend, until a weak shock was detected at 01/1540UT. Since this time, the solar wind has been increasing. The solar wind ranged from 345 to 485 km/s, and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -10 nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions began at 01/2153UT and is ongoing. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease over 02-04 Feb due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.