Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 08 Aug 2026 23:47 UT)
Activity 08 Aug: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 94/40
Solar Forecast
(last updated 08 Aug 2026 23:47 UT)
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug Activity R0 R0 R0 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 08-Aug was at the R0 level, with no significant flares observed. There are currently five active regions visible on the solar disk. Newly numbered active region (AR) 4504 (S19E29, alpha) showed low level spot development over the UT day. All other regions are small and stable and most will rotate off the solar disk today. Solar flare activity is forecast to be at the R0 level over 09-11 Aug due to a lack of complex active regions. Solar radiation storm conditions were at the S0 level on 08-Aug and are forecast to remain at this level over 09-11 Aug. A north east directed narrow coronal mass ejection (CME) visible from 07/2312UT is associated with activity over the eastern limb and is not considered geoeffective. A north directed CME visible from 08/0424UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery is associated with an on disk eruption visible from 08/0233UT in H-alpha, SDO and GOES SUVI imagery at around N20E15. Analysis of this CME was made difficult due to a lack of SOHO coronagraph imagery. Modelling suggests this CME may produce a glancing impact with Earth on 11-Aug at 2300UT +/- 12 hours. A southwest directed CME from 08/0838UT is visible only in STEREO-A imagery. This CME is associated with a filament lift off, visible in H-alpha, SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 08/0623UT at around S25W55. Analysis of this CME was difficult due to a lack of SOHO coronagraph imagery. Modelling suggests this CME may produce a glancing impact with Earth on 12-Aug at 1600UT +/- 12 hours. The solar wind speed increased over 07-Aug, mostly ranging between 250 km/s and 370 km/s and is currently at around 365 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) became enhanced from 0600UT, possibly due to the anticipated arrival of a CME glancing impact. The maximum field strength was 18 nT and the north south component (Bz) ranged between +15 and -18 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at current levels, with a slight decline expected over 09-10 Aug. A slight increase is possible late on 10-Aug or on 11-Aug due to multiple small coronal holes rotating towards a geoeffective position. A further increase is possible late on 11-Aug due to a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 08-Aug.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
