FORECAST SOL: Moderate yellow MAG: Moderate yellow ION: Normal green
HomeSolarSolar ConditionsSummary and Forecast Monday, Apr 15 2024 05:32 UT
Solar Conditions

Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 14 Apr 2024 23:30 UT)

Activity 14 Apr: R0 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M4.3 0232UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 178/131

Solar Forecast

(last updated 14 Apr 2024 23:30 UT)

15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Apr was at the R1 level, due to an impulsive M4.3 flare from AR3637 (S10E52, beta) at 14/0232UT. There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3634 (N25W32, beta) showed spot development and redistribution over the UT day, this region is the largest active region on the solar disk. AR3641 (N16E22, beta) showed signs of rapid growth and AR3635 (N19W07, beta) showed signs of growth in its trailer spots. All other numbered regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1, with a chance of R2 levels over 15-17 Apr. Solar radiation conditions were at the S0 level and are expected to remain at this level over 15-17 Apr. No significantly geoeffective CMEs were observed on 14-Apr. An east directed CME was observed associated with the M4.3 flare but is not considered geoeffective. A CME associated with a filament eruption on the western limb was also observed at around 14/0518UT. Modelling suggests a chance of a glancing impact at 17/2000UT (-/+ 12 hours), this impact is not expected to be significant. An eruption on the disk was observed from 14/1016UT at S20E40 in GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery, there is no associated CME visible in currently available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed increased slightly over UT day 14-Apr. Solar wind speed ranged from 320 to 400 km/s. The wind speed is currently around 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. A halo CME first observed on 12-Apr is expected to impact in the first half of 15-Apr, producing an increase in the solar wind speed. Solar wind speed is expected to be at background levels until this impact occurs and to begin to return to background levels over 16-17 Apr.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.

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