Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 13 Oct 2025 23:33 UT)

Activity 13 Oct: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.9 0527UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M2.7 0919UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M1.3 1319UT possible lower European Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 141/95

Solar Forecast

(last updated 13 Oct 2025 23:33 UT)

14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Oct was at the R1 level. Solar region AR4246 (N24W26, beta-gamma) produced the M2.7 flare and the two M1 class flares and is currently growing. Solar region AR4248 (N09E04, beta-gamma) produced C class flares the largest a C9.5 at 13/1047UT. These two regions are moderately large and more magnetically complex. Other regions are smaller in size. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1,chance R2 levels over 14-16 Oct. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 13-Oct. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 14-16 Oct. Earth directed CMEs have been observed in association with the two M1 flares. A north directed CME was observed in LASCO C2 and STEREOA with the M1.9 flare, first visible at 13/0624UT. This slow CME was modelled as a very weak Earth arrival at approximately 17/1000UT +/- 12 hours. The M1.2 flare associated with a faster stronger CME, though still predominately northwards, with a modelled Earth arrival at 16/1700UT +/- 12 hours. The M2.7 flare did not appear to have an associated CME. The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Oct slighty declined ranging from 650 to 719 km/s and is currently near 680 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -6 to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decrease on 14 Oct due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. The solar wind speed may mildly increase on 15-Oct due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 12-Oct associated with a C9.6 flare. A second CME arrival is now expected on 16-Oct, which may be stronger, associated with a M1.2 flare, further sustaining disturbed conditions and enhancing the IMF.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.