Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 13 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)
Activity 13 Jan: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 117/69
Solar Forecast
(last updated 13 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan Activity R0, chance of R1 R1 R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 120/72 122/75 125/78 COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 13-Jan, with no significant flare events in the last 24 hours. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the solar surface, with Active Region (AR) 4336 (S10W38, beta) being the largest. This region has shown some decay in the trailer spots over the last UT day. Region 4340 (N15E19, beta) has shown some redistribution in minor spots, and AR 4334 (S17W69, alpha) has decayed over the same period. A new unnumbered active region has started to rotate onto the visible disk at (S08E90), with its magnetic classification heavily affected by limb foreshortening. This active region is coincident with the return of ex-active region 4321. Solar flare activity is forecast at R0, with a chance of reaching the R1 level for 14-Jan. This will rise to R1 solar flare activity on 15-16 Jan as this new active region continues rotating onto the front side of the solar disk. Solar radiation storm conditions were at the S0 level during UT day 13-Jan, and S0 conditions are forecast to continue over the period 14-16 Jan. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed over the past UT day. The solar wind speed was elevated over the last 24 hours, gradually decreasing from 550-600 km/s early in the UT day to a current range of 470-520 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 8 nT during 13-Jan, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -7 and +6 nT during this time. The solar wind speed is expected to further decrease over 14-16 Jan, as a coronal hole high-speed wind stream rotates beyond a geoeffective position.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
