Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 19 Oct 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 19 Oct: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.6 0903UT possible lower Mid East/Indian Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 121/73

Solar Forecast

(last updated 19 Oct 2026 23:30 UT)

20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 19-Oct was at the R1 level due to an M1.6 flare at 19/0903UT produced by Active Region (AR) 4551 (S15W57, beta-gamma). There are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR 4551 is the largest on the disk and has shown decay in its intermediate spots. Region 4557 (N08W22, beta) has exhibited growth in its intermediate spots and decay in its trailer spots. AR 4560 (N13E02, beta) has shown spot development across the UT day. Solar flare activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 20-22 Oct due to the size, complexity and observed activity of region 4551. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 19-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 20-22 Oct. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 19-Oct mildly declined, ranging between 405 and 355 km/s, and is currently near 355 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) ranged between -3 to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase on 20-Oct due to coronal hole high-speed wind stream effects, and remain elevated over 21-22 Oct.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.