Solar
FORECAST SOL: Moderate yellow MAG: Moderate yellow ION: Normal green
HomeSolarSolar ConditionsSummary and Forecast Saturday, Jan 17 2026 07:15 UT
Solar Conditions

Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 16 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 16 Jan: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 148/102

Solar Forecast

(last updated 16 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)

17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 147/101 COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 16-Jan, with no M-class or higher flares observed. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar disk. Active Region (AR) 4341 (S11E44,beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex region, and has exhibited minor growth over the past UT day. AR 4343 (S10W07, beta-gamma) has also shown growth over the same period. New region 4347 has rotated onto the visible disk at N10E68, and appears to be magnetically simple. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast to remain at the R1 level, with a chance of R2 activity over 17-19 Jan, given the large magnetically complex regions on the disk. S0 solar proton conditions persisted throughout UT day 16-Jan, with proton flux consistent with background levels. S0 solar proton conditions are forecast over 17-19 Jan. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed over the past UT day in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind has been very strong over 16-Jan, with a discrete elevation observed after 16/0220UT, rising from 540-570 km/s to 650-700 km/s. This was accompanied by increases in solar wind density and temperature, likely due to the arrival of a solar transient, with the solar wind remaining between 670-710 km/s over the last six hours. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 14 nT, coincident with the rise in solar wind speed. The north-south component (Bz) of the magnetic field ranged between -12 and +11 nT, with a prolonged period of southward Bz between 16/1315UT and 16/1445UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 17-Jan due to the ongoing effects of this solar transient, and is forecast to remain elevated over 18-19 Jan as the Earth connects with a high-speed coronal hole wind stream.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.

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