Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 21 Oct 2024 23:31 UT)

Activity 21 Oct: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 164/118

Solar Forecast

(last updated 21 Oct 2024 23:31 UT)

22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected 10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Oct was R0, with no solar flares. The two largest medium sized regions are AR3859 (S12W51, beta) and AR3863 (S06E34, beta). Region AR3863 showed intermediate spot development. There are currently eleven numbered sunspots on the disk, with no region currently exhibiting significant magnetic complexity and all are small to medium in size. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 22-24 Oct. However, previously flare active (R3) solar region AR3842 is due back to the southeast limb (S15) on 23-Oct. Also, two R1 flare producing regions are possibly also due back to the northeast (N13) and southeast (S14) limbs on 22-Oct. Some plasma motion was evident in SDO/SUVI imagery from 21/1020UT on the southeast solar limb at solar latitude S10-S15. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 21-Oct in available STEREOA imagery, with a behind the limb southeast directed CME visible from 21/1023UT. No LASCO imagery was available. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 21-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 22-24 Oct. The solar wind environment on UT day 21-Oct declined to background levels. The solar wind speed ranged from near 321 to 367 km/s and is currently at 320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -3 nT. A mild enhancement of the solar wind may occur over 22-23 Oct due to a coronal hole. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is also approaching the solar central meridian.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.