Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 01 Apr 2025 23:30 UT)
Activity 01 Apr: R2 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M5.6 0646UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M2.5 2231UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 182/135
Solar Forecast
(last updated 01 Apr 2025 23:30 UT)
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr Activity R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 R1-R2,chance R3 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 180/133 176/130 176/130 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Apr was R2 due to an M5.6 flare from AR4046 (N05E20, beta-gamma). The flare was from an area southeast of the regions single large spot. This region has recently been flare quiet and also produced the R3 flare back on 28-Mar. This region has been largely stable with a reduction in penumbral area south of the single large spot and a reduction in its very small trailer spots. Large solar region AR4048 (S15E44, beta-gamma) produced an M2.5 R1 flare and has grown in longitudinal extent with an increase in leader spot umbral area and general increase in penumbral area. Smaller regions AR4044 (N17W14, beta) and AR4049 (S31E19, beta) have shown slight growth and produced minor C flare activity. Other regions are small and are either stable or in decay. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Solar flare activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 02-04 Apr. There is a chance for an isolated R3 flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery. An eastward directed far side CME was observed from 01/1824UT. S2 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 02-Apr with the solar proton flux now declining. The solar proton flux is possibly from the recent east limb X1 flare on 28-Mar. S1 declining to S0 conditions are expected on 02-Apr and S0 conditions are expected on 03-Apr. The solar wind environment on UT day 01-Apr was steady but variable with a possible very weak indistinct CME signature observed at 01/1730UT with the total field becoming subsequently slightly enhanced and a slight increase in speed was then also observed. The solar wind speed ranged from 473 to 353 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +9 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be slightly enhanced today and may decline on 03-Apr. A small equatorial coronal hole is now just past solar central meridian and is smaller on this solar rotation. An moderate increase in solar wind speed is expected over 04-06 Apr from this hole.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
