Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 20 Nov 2025 23:30 UT)

Activity 20 Nov: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 121/73

Solar Forecast

(last updated 20 Nov 2025 23:30 UT)

21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66 COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level for the UT day 20-Nov, with no significant flare events observed in the last 24 hours. There are currently five numbered Active Regions (AR) on the visible solar surface, with AR4284 (S06W55, Beta) being the largest and most magnetically complex. This region has shown decay over the past 24 hours as it has rotated towards the western limb. AR4288 (N18E82) has recently rotated over the eastern limb of the solar disk, and appears stable with a beta magnetic classification. However, this classification is currently influenced by limb foreshortening. A new unnumbered region (S02E69) has also rotated over the eastern limb. This region appears to exhibit alpha magnetic classification, and has shown some mild growth over the past 24 hours. All other active regions on the solar surface appear stable or in decay. Solar activity is forecast to remain at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 over the period 21-23 Nov, due to ongoing flare activity from AR4284 and AR4288. Solar radiation storm conditions were at the S0 level during UT day 20-Nov. S0 conditions are forecast for the period 21-23 Nov. Three Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past UT day. All three are considered non-geoeffective. However, further data is required to fully confirm if the third CME, observed from 20/1523UT in STEREO-A coronograph imagery, did indeed take place on the far side of the Sun. The solar wind speed has increased over the past 24 hours due to high speed wind stream effects from a small northern coronal hole, ranging between 360-380 km/s early in the UT day, and now ranging between 400-430 km/s over the last six hours. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 18 nT during 20-Nov, with the North-South component (Bz) ranging between -10 and +15 nT. The IMF Bt is currently at 14 nT, with some extended periods of negative Bz over the past three hours. The solar wind speed will likely remain at this level over the 21-22 Nov due to high speed coronal hole wind stream effects, declining on 23-Nov as this rotates further across the disk.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.