Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 20 May 2022 23:30 UT)

Activity 20 May: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M3.0 0745UT possible lower Mid East/Indian Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 166/120

Solar Forecast

(last updated 20 May 2022 23:30 UT)

21 May 22 May 23 May Activity R1 R1 R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 160/114 162/116 165/119 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20 May was at the R1 level, with an M3.0/1B flare at 0745 UT from AR3014 (N20E03). AR3014 is complex with a Dkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration and appears to be interacting with ARs 3015 and 3017. An unnumbered region near N18W27 has developed and other regions are mostly stable or in decline. Due to AR3014's complexity, solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level with possible R2 to R3 levels 21-23 May. A southwest CME was first observed at 20/1224 UT with activity around 1149 UT in the abovementioned unnumbered spot region the likely origin. Analysis indicates this CME may just graze Earth from later on 22 May. The solar wind speed range on 20 May was elevated, 511-608 km/s, due to coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed is currently near 600 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south component (Bz) range was +/-6 nT. There is a very slight chance of a weak CME arrival on 21 May from a CME first observed on 17 May. The 20 May CME may arrive sometime in the latter half of 22 or first half of 23 May and cause a moderate elevation in solar wind conditions. Otherwise, the solar wind is expected to decline towards ambient levels.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.