Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 13 Nov 2025 23:32 UT)

Activity 13 Nov: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 156/110

Solar Forecast

(last updated 13 Nov 2025 23:32 UT)

14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 135/89 COMMENT: Solar activity for UT day 13-Nov was at the R0 level, with no significant flare events recorded. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions, with AR4274 (N25W79, beta-gamma) the most magnetically complex region. This region has shown some small growth over the last 24 hours, as it moves towards the western limb. AR4280 (S08E27, beta) and AR4281 (S14W73, beta) have also shown some growth over this period, with all other active regions stable or in decay. Solar activity for 14-16 Nov is expected to be at the R1-R2 level due to previous flare activity from AR4274. Solar proton conditions briefly peaked at the S2 level early on 13-Nov, due to effects from past flare and coronal mass ejection events. The proton flux has been declining over the course of 13-Nov as the effects of these events pass. S0 solar proton conditions, with a chance of S1, are expected for 14-16 Nov as these conditions continue to ease. Four CME events were observed over the UT day 14-Nov, with three events not being geoeffective. A fourth event, associated with a filament eruption centred near S24W27 at 13/1648UT was observed in coronagraph imagery at 13/1838UT. Modelling will be completed once sufficient coronagraph imagery becomes available. Solar wind speed was elevated to start the UT day 13-Nov, due to the ongoing effects of the previous CME arrivals. The wind speed peaked at 999km/s, but has since been in decline, with values largely between 750km/s and 670km/s over the last 10 hours. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 22 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -17 to +12 nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was observed over the interval 12/2336UT to 13/0144UT. Further decreases in the solar wind speed are expected over UT day 14-Nov as the effects of the past CMEs continue to ease. These effects will continue to ease over UT days 15-16 Nov, but will be offset on 16-Nov by high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole currently crossing the solar meridian.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.