Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 21 Feb 2025 23:30 UT)
Activity 21 Feb: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M3.3 1215UT possible lower European M1.4 1435UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 197/149
Solar Forecast
(last updated 21 Feb 2025 23:30 UT)
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 195/147 190/143 185/138 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Feb was at the R1 level, due to an M3.3 flare at 21/1215UT and an M1.4 flare at 21/1435UT. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. Newly numbered AR4000 (N18E10, beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for both of the M-class flares over the UT day. AR4000 and AR3998 (S14E05, beta-gamma-delta) both showed significant spot development on 21-Feb and have delta spot candidates. All other numbered regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region has developed at N29W70 and another unnumbered region has rotated on to the solar disk at N13E61, both with beta magnetic characteristics. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 22-24 Feb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 21-Feb, with a very slight increase in >10MeV proton flux observed from 21/1800UT. S0 conditions are expected on 22-24 Feb. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A disappearing filament is visible in H-Alpha, GOES SUVI and SDO imagery from 21/0403UT at around S33E20. No associated CME is visible in available coronagraph imagery. A west directed CME is visible from 21/1248UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This event is associated with an eruption on the solar disk at around N25 on the western limb, visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 21/1155UT. Modelling indicates this CME will pass ahead of the Earth. The solar wind speed on UT day 21-Feb declined, mostly ranging between 290 and 405 km/s and is currently near 305 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels over 22-24 Feb.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
