Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 05 Dec 2024 23:30 UT)

Activity 05 Dec: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.0 0710UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M1.1 0820UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M2.5 1040UT possible lower European Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 175/129

Solar Forecast

(last updated 05 Dec 2024 23:30 UT)

06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Dec was at the R1 level due to three M-class flares, the largest of which was an M2.5 flare at 05/1040UT produced by AR3906 (S14W95, beta) which is now beyond the western limb. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3915 (N11E27, beta) has shown recent mild spot growth. AR3916 (S15E44, beta) and AR3917 (S09E53, beta) have both exhibited spot growth over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 06-08 Dec. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Dec declined, ranging from 370 to 485 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. A southern hemisphere coronal hole is currently crossing the central meridian and may influence the solar wind speed in the second half of UT day 06-Dec. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 06-08 Dec due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.