Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 22 Oct 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 22 Oct: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 106/55

Solar Forecast

(last updated 22 Oct 2026 23:30 UT)

23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 102/50 102/50 100/48 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 22-Oct was at the R0 level, with no significant flares observed. There are two Active Regions (ARs) currently visible on the solar disk. AR 4560 (N15W40, beta-gamma) is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the solar surface. It has shown signs of mild spot growth and continues to exhibit spot separation, accompanied by further development of its intermediate spots. AR 4557 (N08W67, beta) showed signs of mild decay as it continues to rotate towards the western limb. R0 conditions, with a chance of R1, are forecast over 23-25 Oct due to the size of AR 4560. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed throughout UT day 22-Oct, with S0 conditions expected to persist over 23-25 Oct. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed on 22-Oct was moderate, declining from 480 km/s early in the day to its current value of 424 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) ranged from -7 to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to slowly return to ambient levels across 23-24 Oct as the high speed wind stream effects from a narrow southern coronal hole abate. The solar wind environment may become lightly enhanced on 25-Oct due to a potential glancing impact of a CME first observed on 21-Oct.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.