Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 15 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)

Activity 15 Jan: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 139/93

Solar Forecast

(last updated 15 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)

16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 145/99 143/97 140/94 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 15-Jan was at the R0 level. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4341 (S09E67, beta-gamma-delta) is largest and the most magnetically complex region on the disk but appears stable. AR4343 (S10E71, beta-gamma) and AR4342 (N18E71, beta) have shown growth in their trailing spots over UT day. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 16-18 Jan, with a chance of R2. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 15-Jan. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 16-18 Jan. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. Two north directed CMEs were observed at 15/0224UT and 15/0712UT, both of which are considered farside events and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Jan was mostly stable, ranging from 471-675 km/s and is currently 564 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. An equatorial coronal hole his expected to become geoeffective on 18th Jan. The solar wind is expected to decline over 16-17 Jan and increase on 18-Jan due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.