Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 10 Oct 2026 23:32 UT)
Activity 10 Oct: R2 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.2 1413UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic M6.4 1510UT probable lower South American/ Atlantic Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 126/79
Solar Forecast
(last updated 10 Oct 2026 23:32 UT)
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 10-Oct was at the R2 level due to an M6.4 flare at 10/1510UT produced by Active Region (AR) 4549 (N11W51, beta-delta). An M1.2 flare was observed from the same region at 10/1412UT. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR 4549 is the most magnetically complex region on the disk and has decayed over the UT day. Region 4551 (S14E60, beta) has exhibited growth in its leader spot. Region 4545 (N18W57, beta) has shown mild spot growth over the 24-hour period. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 11-13 Oct due to the observed flare activity and magnetic complexity of region 4549. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 10-Oct. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 11-13 Oct. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. A west-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 10/1548UT. This CME is considered to be associated with the aforementioned M6.4 flare from region 4549. Modelling indicates this CME does not contain a geoeffective component. A second west-directed CME observed at 10/0836UT is considered a farside event and therefore not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-Oct increased, ranging between 355 and 905 km/s, and is currently near 720 km/s. A strong solar wind shock was observed in the solar wind at 10/1434UT, indicative of a CME arrival. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 46 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -29 to +34 nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions was observed over the interval 10/1623-1839UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 11-13 Oct due to ongoing CME effects, the arrival of two CMEs first observed on 08-Oct and coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a southern hemisphere coronal hole. An equatorial coronal hole is also currently crossing the central meridian and is expected to influence the solar wind speed from 13-Oct.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
