Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 02 Jul 2026 23:30 UT)
Activity 02 Jul: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M8.5 01/2309UT probable lower West Pacific M1.1 0002UT possible lower West Pacific M4.2 0156UT possible lower West Pacific M2.8 1026UT possible lower European Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 203/154
Solar Forecast
(last updated 02 Jul 2026 23:30 UT)
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 200/152 200/152 190/143 COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R1 level on UT day 02-Jul, with an M1.1 flare peaking at 02/0002UT from Active Region (AR) 4478 (S06W34, beta-gamma-delta), an M4.2 flare peaking at 02/0156UT from AR 4479 (N17W49, beta-gamma-delta), and an M2.8 flare at 02/1026UT from AR 4480 (S15W61, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently three sunspot regions on the solar disk, with AR 4478 remaining the largest. It maintains a delta spot, and has remained mostly stable over the previous UT day. AR 4479 has shown some decay over the past UT day, but also maintains a delta region. AR 4480 has shown some growth over the past UT day, and also appears to contain a delta spot. Solar flare activity is expected to remain at the R1-R2 level over 03-05 Jul, with all three regions producing M-class flares over the last 24 hours, and a new sunspot region, visible with Solar Orbiter, due to rotate over the eastern limb within the next 48 hours. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed throughout 02-Jul, with the solar proton flux consistent with background values. S0 solar radiation storm conditions, with a chance of S1, are forecast over 03-05 Jul due to flare-active sunspot regions in geoeffective locations on the solar disk. Two new geoeffective coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over the previous UT day. The first, a north-directed medium-velocity CME, was observed in SOHO/LASCO from 01/2112UT following an M3.5 flare from AR 4479 at 01/1943UT. The second CME, another north-directed medium-velocity CME, was observed in SOHO/LASCO from 02/0224UT, following an M4.2 flare from AR 4479 at 02/0156UT. While both of these CMEs are predominantly north-directed, modelling has suggested an Earth-directed component. These CMEs are forecast to combine with a CME first observed on 01/1300UT, with a combined impact forecast to arrive at 04/2100UT +/- 10 hours. The solar wind environment on UT day 02-Jul was consistent with background conditions, with the solar wind speed declining from 400 km/s early in the UT day to a current value of around 330 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 9 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -2 and +9 nT. The solar wind is expected to increase on 03-Jul due to the impact of a CME first observed on 30-Jun. The solar wind will remain elevated over 04-05 Jul, with the combined impact of three further CMEs expected late on 04-Jul.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
