Summary and Forecast

Solar Summary

(last updated 14 Jan 2026 23:36 UT)

Activity 14 Jan: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.6 2033UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 127/80

Solar Forecast

(last updated 14 Jan 2026 23:36 UT)

15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 130/84 132/86 128/81 COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 14-Jan was at the R1 level due to an M1.6 flare at 14/2033UT produced by AR4341 (S09E81, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR4341 is the most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown growth in its leader spots. AR4340 (N15E08, beta-gamma) has exhibited mild spot growth over the UT day. AR4336 (S10W50, beta) has shown mild spot growth in its trailer spots. Newly numbered AR4342 (N19E75, beta) recently rotated over the eastern limb and appears stable. An unnumbered region recently appeared near S05E22 (beta-gamma) and has exhibited spot growth. Solar flare activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 15-17 Jan, with a chance of R2. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 14-Jan, with the 10 MeV proton flux showing a slight elevation above background levels from 14/2230UT, but still well within the S0 range. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 15-17 Jan. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Jan was mostly stable, ranging from 470 to 570 km/s and is currently near 565 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -6 to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 15-17 Jan.

Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.