Summary and Forecast
Solar Summary
(last updated 14 Aug 2025 23:30 UT)
Activity 14 Aug: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 130/84
Solar Forecast
(last updated 14 Aug 2025 23:30 UT)
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Aug was at the R0 level. There are currently thirteen numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. No regions showed significant spot development over the UT day. AR4172 (N11W54, beta) and the, soon to rotate off, AR4178 (N09W83, beta) are the largest regions on the solar disk, but are in decay and have no history of R1 level flaring or higher. AR4180 (S02E30, beta) showed movement in its trailer spots but is magnetically simple and has no history of R1 level flaring or higher. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 15-17 Aug, with a chance of R1. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 14-Aug. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 15-17 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 14-Aug. An eruption is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 14/1946UT at around N10 on the western limb. This is associated with a long duration C2.0 flare from AR4178. No associated CME is visible in currently available coronagraph imagery. Further analysis will be performed when more imagery becomes available. However, a CME from this location on the solar disk is highly unlikely to possess a significant geoeffective component. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Aug declined slightly, mostly ranging between 420 km/s to 530 km/s and is currently near 460 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -5 nT to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline gradually over 15-17 Aug as ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane. There is a chance of an increase late on 17-Aug due to further high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole currently rotating towards a geoeffective position.
Solar Activity levels are explained in the SWS Solar Terrestrial Glossary.
