Daily Report

(last updated 06 Jul 2025 23:32 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2025 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 06 Jul: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 118/70 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul Activity R0 R0 R0 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 115/66 113/64 111/62 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 6-Jul was R0, with no solar flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR 4127 (S22W58, beta), AR4130 (S14W10, beta) and AR4132 (S25W14, beta) have all shown some minor growth over the past day but overall all visible sunspots are small and not showing significant potential for solar flares. Solar activity is expected to be R0 over 7-9 Jul. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 6-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 6-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 7-9 Jul. The solar wind environment was mildly disturbed on UT day 6-Jul due to ongoing coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed ranged from 379 to 472 km/s and is slowly declining. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +9 to -10 nT, with several periods of southward Bz. The solar wind is expected to slowly return to background levels over 7-9 Jul, possibly increasing by the end of the period due to another small coronal hole. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: G0 Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K Australian Region 13 33343023 Cocos Island 6 23222012 Darwin 12 33333123 Townsville - -------- Learmonth 12 33333023 Alice Springs 10 33233022 Gingin 12 33243023 Canberra 10 33242012 Kennaook Cape Grim 13 33343023 Hobart 16 33353023 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul : Macquarie Island 23 24364024 Casey 10 33332013 Mawson 48 67434136 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville NA Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 2 (Quiet) Canberra 2 (Quiet) Hobart 8 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A Fredericksburg 14 Planetary 19 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K Fredericksburg 20 Planetary 20 3334 4333 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 07 Jul 10 G0-G1 08 Jul 8 G0 09 Jul 10 G0 COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 6 July and is current for 6-7 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 6-Jul. G0-G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Average planetary conditions observed an isolated period of G1. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 7-9 Jul. An isolated period of G1 is possible on 7-Jul. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 06 Jul Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 07 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair 09 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 6-Jul were normal to mildly degraded due to ongoing coronal hole effects. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal to mildly degraded on 7-Jul, trending to more normal on 8-Jul, then possibly becoming degraded late on 9-Jul due to further coronal hole effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 06 Jul 86 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 40% during local night. Depressed by 25% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Depressed by 15% during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Depressed by 25% after local dawn. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Depressed by 25% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jun 79 Jul 104 Aug 102 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 07 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed 08 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed 09 Jul 95 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 6-Jul were near predicted values to 25% depressed. Conditions were heavily degraded in the northern regions during local dawn hours. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% depressed over 7-8 Jul, improving by 9-Jul. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 05 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B4.6 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: -2 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------