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FORECAST SOL: Moderate yellow MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Tuesday, Jul 16 2024 15:33 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 15 Jul 2024 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2024 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 15 Jul: Moderate Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.2 0345UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M2.7 0937UT possible lower Mid East/Indian Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 233/183 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul Activity R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 R1-R2, chance R3 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 235/185 235/185 230/180 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Jul was R1, with three low-level M-class solar flares. All flares originated from AR3738 (S11W67, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently eleven numbered sunspots on the solar disk. Most regions have shown rapid changes over the past day, with many new regions growing. AR3738, AR3743 (S07W16, beta-gamma) and AR3751 (S09W64, beta-gamma) are the most complex regions on the disk and have the most flare potential. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 16-18 Jul with a chance for R3. A narrow but dark dimming event was observed at 14/2159 UT near AR3744 (N16E10, beta). While no associated CME can be observed, image quality at this time is severely degraded. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on UT day 15-Jul. A weak and narrow CME was observed in association with the M2 flare from AR3738 from 0936 UT, however it is directed well to the west. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 15-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 16-18 Jul. The solar wind environment on UT day 15-Jul was near background levels. The solar wind speed ranged between 290 to 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +4 to -7 nT, with a mild shock at 15/2130 UT. The solar wind environment is expected to be near background levels over 16-18 Jul. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: G0 Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K Australian Region 2 12200011 Cocos Island 2 12210000 Darwin 3 12200012 Townsville 4 22200112 Learmonth 2 12200011 Alice Springs 2 12100011 Gingin 2 11200011 Canberra 1 11100001 Kennaook Cape Grim 1 111000-- Hobart 2 11100111 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul : Macquarie Island 0 00000000 Casey 3 12210012 Mawson 6 22100024 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 6 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K Fredericksburg 9 Planetary 5 2202 1212 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 16 Jul 8 G0 17 Jul 10 G0 18 Jul 8 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian and Antarctica regions on UT day 15-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 16-18 Jul. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 15 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 16 Jul Normal Normal Normal 17 Jul Normal Normal Normal 18 Jul Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 15-Jul were mostly normal, with some degraded conditions at low latitudes during local night hours. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be normal over 16-18 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 15 Jul 127 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 50% during local day. Enhanced by 50% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 25% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jun 120 Jul 118 Aug 117 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 16 Jul 125 Near predicted monthly values 17 Jul 125 Near predicted monthly values 18 Jul 125 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on 13 July and is current for 14-16 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-Jul were mostly near predicted values in the Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed in Norfolk Island and Brisbane during local night hours. Spread-F was observed in Niue during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 16-18 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 14 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C3.3 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 25100 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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