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FORECAST SOL: Moderate yellow MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Thursday, May 19 2022 21:55 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 18 May 2022 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 18 May: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.1 2202UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 180/133 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 19 May 20 May 21 May Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 178/131 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-May was at R1 level, with a M1.1 flare at 18/2202UT (optical location yet to be confirmed at time of writing) and several low-level C-class flares. Majority of the flaring has originated from the active regions in the northeast quadrant, particularly from AR3014 (N22E15, beta-gamma). AR3014 is the most complex region, and has increased in area and spot count. AR3014 has the greatest potential to produce M-class flares. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels on 19-21 May, with a slight chance of R2 level. A large prominence eruption was observed in SDO and H-alpha imagery starting at around 18/0600UT on the northwest limb, with a subsequent CME observed in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery starting at around 18/1000UT. This CME is not considered to be geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on 18-May was mildly enhanced with a declining trend, ranging from 418-542 km/s, due to waning coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed is currently near 480 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to trend downwards to near background levels over 19-21 May, although there is a slight chance that a small equatorial coronal hole may briefly increase the solar wind speed during this period. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: G0 Estimated Indices 18 May : A K Australian Region 3 22110201 Darwin 3 21101202 Learmonth 3 22110210 Alice Springs 3 22000201 Gingin 3 22110200 Canberra 3 22010201 Hobart 3 21011201 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May : Macquarie Island 2 11020100 Casey 8 33221222 Mawson 14 54322112 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville NA Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 6 (Quiet) Canberra 14 (Quiet) Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 8 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K Fredericksburg 15 Planetary 13 1333 3232 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 19 May 5 G0 20 May 5 G0 21 May 5 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 18-May. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed at Mawson in the earlier part of the UT day. G0 conditions are likely for the Australian region during 19-21 May. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 18 May Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 19 May Normal Normal Normal 20 May Normal Normal Normal 21 May Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected for 19-21 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during this period. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 18 May 87 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 75% during local day. Enhanced by 50% during local night. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 45% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Enhanced by 35% after local dawn. Northern Australian Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Enhanced by 30% after local dawn. Southern Australian Region: Enhanced by 20% during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Enhanced by 25% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Enhanced by 30% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Apr 77 May 51 Jun 54 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 19 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 20 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 21 May 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 17 May and is current for 17-19 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 18-May were near monthly predicted values to slightly enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during 1100-2100UT. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted values to slightly enhanced during 19-21 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during this period. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 17 May Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.8 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May Speed: 555 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 370000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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