Daily Report

(last updated 16 Jan 2026 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2026 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 16 Jan: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 148/102 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 147/101 COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 16-Jan, with no M-class or higher flares observed. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar disk. Active Region (AR) 4341 (S11E44,beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex region, and has exhibited minor growth over the past UT day. AR 4343 (S10W07, beta-gamma) has also shown growth over the same period. New region 4347 has rotated onto the visible disk at N10E68, and appears to be magnetically simple. All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast to remain at the R1 level, with a chance of R2 activity over 17-19 Jan, given the large magnetically complex regions on the disk. S0 solar proton conditions persisted throughout UT day 16-Jan, with proton flux consistent with background levels. S0 solar proton conditions are forecast over 17-19 Jan. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed over the past UT day in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind has been very strong over 16-Jan, with a discrete elevation observed after 16/0220UT, rising from 540-570 km/s to 650-700 km/s. This was accompanied by increases in solar wind density and temperature, likely due to the arrival of a solar transient, with the solar wind remaining between 670-710 km/s over the last six hours. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 14 nT, coincident with the rise in solar wind speed. The north-south component (Bz) of the magnetic field ranged between -12 and +11 nT, with a prolonged period of southward Bz between 16/1315UT and 16/1445UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 17-Jan due to the ongoing effects of this solar transient, and is forecast to remain elevated over 18-19 Jan as the Earth connects with a high-speed coronal hole wind stream. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: G0 Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K Australian Region 15 33323433 Cocos Island 11 23223332 Darwin 17 33323434 Townsville 16 33333433 Learmonth 19 33323543 Alice Springs 15 33323433 Gingin 19 33323543 Canberra 16 33333433 Kennaook Cape Grim 18 34333433 Hobart 19 34333434 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan : Macquarie Island 43 24445754 Casey 41 57543433 Mawson 64 54545854 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan : Darwin 4 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 11 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 81 (Minor storm) Canberra 78 (Active) Hobart 119 (Major storm) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A Fredericksburg 18 Planetary 24 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 12 3232 1332 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 17 Jan 15 G0-G1 18 Jan 24 G1, chance of G2 19 Jan 24 G1 COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were at the G0 level for UT day 16-Jan, with isolated G1 intervals recorded at Learmonth and Gingin. Geomagnetic conditions reached the G1 level at the planetary level, with periods of G3-G4 observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 conditions are forecast for 17-Jan, as the effects from a possible solar transient continue. Geomagnetic conditions are likely to increase on 18-Jan to G1, with a chance of G2, as the Earth enters a coronal hole high-speed wind stream. G1 conditions are forecast for 19-Jan as the high-speed wind stream effects persist. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 16 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair 18 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair 19 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions are mostly Normal, with some degradations observed in the Asian region during local daytime hours, and during local nighttime hours in the African region. MUFs were near predicted values in the European region. Ionospheric conditions were Fair across the Antarctic region. Conditions are expected to be Normal-Fair during 17-Jan, becoming Fair-Normal during 18-19 Jan due to forecast geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 16 Jan 83 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Niue Island Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Depressed by 20% over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Dec 110 Jan 89 Feb 88 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 17 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values 18 Jan 75 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 19 Jan 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 15 January and is current for 15-17 Jan. Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values during UT day 16-Jan. Some enhancements were observed in the Cocos Islands, while depressions were observed in the Antarctic region. Mild sporadic E was observed in the southern Australian region, and some mild spread F was reported during local night hours in Hobart. MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly values over 17-Jan, but are forecast to become depressed by 10-15% on 18-19 Jan due to geomagnetic activity associated with a coronal hole high‑speed wind stream. Shortwave fadeouts and sporadic-E are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 15 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B9.4 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan Speed: 581 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 222000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------