Daily Report

(last updated 03 Oct 2022 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2022 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW ** ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 03 Oct: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M2.6 0233UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M4.2 1011UT possible lower European M1.1 1053UT possible lower European M1.5 1111UT possible lower European M1.7 1530UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic M1.3 2029UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American M1.8 2122UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American M1.3 2202UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 155/109 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 154/109 152/107 148/102 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Oct reached the R1 level due to multiple flare events. Two regions, AR3112 (N23E47, beta) and AR3110 (N16W63, beta), produced the M class flare activity. The largest flare for the day, an M4.2 event, was produced by AR3110, and was accompanied by a weak narrow northwest directed coronal mass ejection. Event modelling shows this minor CME will miss the Earth. Both of these regions have shown some degree of partial decline spot area, with perhaps a more open configuration and reported magnetic complexity appears to have somewhat simplified, though whole disk R1 class flare probability is currently at 70%. There is a slight chance for an ASWAS S1 proton flare over the next few days. There are currently seven sunspot regions on the solar disk. Solar region AR3115(S18E06, beta) has shown growth but exhibited little activity. Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly R1-R2 levels over 04-06 Oct. A solar filament located at S30E30, erupted with an associated CME observed from 03/00-02UT. The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Oct was and variable, and ranged between 480 to 570 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream, and is currently at 492km/sec. The solar wind is expected to remain elevated over 04-06 Oct due to the combined effects of declining coronal hole high speed wind streams effects and partial impacts of several recent CMEs. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +12to -13 nT. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: G0 Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K Australian Region 13 22214343 Cocos Island 11 22223341 Darwin - -------- Townsville 14 32214343 Learmonth 15 32314343 Alice Springs 13 22214343 Gingin 15 32304343 Canberra 13 22204343 Hobart 14 22304343 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct : Macquarie Island 24 33405453 Casey 16 33323244 Mawson 58 64424385 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct : Darwin NA Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 13 (Quiet) Canberra 11 (Quiet) Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A Fredericksburg 23 Planetary 32 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K Fredericksburg 9 Planetary 10 2103 2324 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 04 Oct 35 G1-G2 05 Oct 20 G0-G1 06 Oct 30 G1, chance G2 COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 3 October and is current for 3-5 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 03-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 and G2 at Mawson, and a period of G1 at Macquarie Island. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be initially at the G0 level on 04-Oct, then increasing to G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions from mid to late in the UT day on 04-Oct, in association with CME events observed over 01-02-Oct. Further activity, isolated G1 periods, is expected on 05-Oct due to possible glancing blows from multiple recent flare associated CMEs. G1 conditions are then expected from the middle of the UT day on 06-Oct due to the expected arrival of a component of a CME associated with an erupting solar filament observed on 03 Oct. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 03 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 04 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor 05 Oct Normal Fair Fair-poor 06 Oct Normal Fair Poor COMMENT: HF conditions at middle to high latitudes are initially expected to be normal on 04 Oct, then becoming degraded late in the UT day, with generally degraded HF conditions possible 05-06 Oct in response to anticipated geomagnetic activity from recent coronal mass ejection activity. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 03 Oct 94 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 25-45%. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 15-20%. Northern Australian Region: Enhanced by 15-25%. Southern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Sep 74 Oct 69 Nov 69 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 04 Oct 80 About 15% above predicted monthly values 05 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 06 Oct 40 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 3 October and is current for 3-4 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Oct were generally near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced, with very strong enhancements observed at Cocos Island. Spread F was observed during local night hours at Perth. A shortwave fadeout impacting lower HF frequencies was observed 03/0227-0310UT. Equatorial ionospheric scintillation was briefly observed at Darwin 03/1700-1715UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on 04-Oct, then becoming degraded during 05-06 Oct, in association with an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity during this interval. The degree of middle latitude ionospheric depression response to any expected increase in geomagnetic activity is difficult to estimate due to the current enhanced ionospheric conditions. Further fadeouts are likely on daylight HF circuits. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 02 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.4 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------