Daily Report

(last updated 13 Jul 2026 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2026 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 13 Jul: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 103/52 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Jul was R0, with no solar flares. There are currently four numbered sunspots on the solar disk, but all regions are currently stable. Solar activity is expected to be R0, chance R1 over 14-16 Jul. No CMEs were observed on UT day 13-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 13-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 14-16 Jul. The solar wind environment on UT day 13-Jul was mildly disturbed from 1400 UT, likely due to a recent CME weakly glancing the Earth. The solar wind speed ranged between 415 and 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +1 to -5 nT. The solar wind may be intermittently disturbed over 14-15 Jul, although weakly, due to further glancing blows. Solar wind conditions are expected to be at background levels on 16-Jul. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: G0 Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K Australian Region 5 11112222 Cocos Island 5 11112222 Darwin 5 21112222 Townsville 6 22112222 Learmonth 8 22113223 Alice Springs 5 11112222 Gingin 8 11113233 Canberra 4 11012222 Kennaook Cape Grim 6 12112322 Hobart 6 12112322 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul : Macquarie Island 6 01023232 Casey 6 12112223 Mawson 24 33312356 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul : Darwin NA Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Hobart 2 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A Fredericksburg 10 Planetary 11 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K Fredericksburg 16 Planetary 18 4234 5323 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 14 Jul 8 G0 15 Jul 10 G0 16 Jul 10 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 13-Jul. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 14-16 Jul. Several weak CME arrivals are possible over this period, but are not expected to induce geomagnetic conditions above G0. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 13 Jul Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 14 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 15 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair 16 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-Jul were mostly normal to mildly degraded across the globe. HF propagation conditions over 14-16 Jul may be mildly degraded due to possible weak CME arrivals, but normal during daylight hours. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 13 Jul 60 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: No data available during local day. No data available during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 25% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jun 81 Jul 66 Aug 63 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 14 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed 15 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values 16 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 13-Jul were near predicted values to 20% depressed. HF conditions in most Australian sites were degraded during local dawn hours with significant spread-F. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values over 14-16 Jul, with residual depressions possible on 14-Jul up to 15%. Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible during local dawn hours. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 12 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B5.4 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 97700 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------