Daily Report

(last updated 05 Dec 2024 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2024 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 05 Dec: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.0 0710UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M1.1 0820UT possible lower Mid East/Indian M2.5 1040UT possible lower European Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 175/129 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 170/124 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Dec was at the R1 level due to three M-class flares, the largest of which was an M2.5 flare at 05/1040UT produced by AR3906 (S14W95, beta) which is now beyond the western limb. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3915 (N11E27, beta) has shown recent mild spot growth. AR3916 (S15E44, beta) and AR3917 (S09E53, beta) have both exhibited spot growth over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 06-08 Dec. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Dec declined, ranging from 370 to 485 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. A southern hemisphere coronal hole is currently crossing the central meridian and may influence the solar wind speed in the second half of UT day 06-Dec. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 06-08 Dec due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: G0 Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K Australian Region 4 22210111 Cocos Island 2 12110100 Darwin 4 22111111 Townsville 5 22211122 Learmonth 4 22211102 Alice Springs 5 22210122 Gingin 4 32110012 Canberra 3 21110021 Kennaook Cape Grim 4 22210021 Hobart 5 22210122 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec : Macquarie Island 2 22010011 Casey 21 45542122 Mawson 13 34322233 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 12 (Quiet) Canberra 2 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 5 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K Fredericksburg 5 Planetary 5 1112 1112 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 06 Dec 8 G0 07 Dec 10 G0 08 Dec 10 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 05-Dec. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 06-08 Dec. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 05 Dec Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair 07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair 08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on UT day 05-Dec, with some degradations observed during local night hours. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 06-08 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 05 Dec 124 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Depressed by 25% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 25% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Nov 127 Dec 117 Jan 114 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 06 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values 07 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values 08 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 141 was issued on 5 December and is current for 5-7 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 05-Dec were near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed at several Australian sites during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 06-08 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 04 Dec Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.8 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 183000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------