Daily Report

(last updated 14 May 2025 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2025 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW ** ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 14 May: R3 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M5.3 0325UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust. M1.2 0745UT possible lower Mid East/Indian X2.7 0825UT probable all Mid East/Indian M7.7 1119UT probable lower European M4.7 1811UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 122/75 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 15 May 16 May 17 May Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable 10.7cm/SSN 116/68 116/68 118/70 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-May was at the R3 level due to an X2.7 flare at 14/0825UT produced by AR4087 (N15E50, beta-gamma). This region also produced two flares at the R2 level, with an M5.3 at 14/0325UT and an M7.7 at 14/1119UT. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4087 is the largest region on the disk and has shown decay in its trailer spots and some mild development in its leader spots. Newly numbered AR4088 (N08W37, beta) recently appeared on the solar disk and has shown mild growth. AR4082 (S12W66, alpha) is stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R2 level over 15-17 May, with a chance of R3. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. A northeast-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 14/0848UT. This CME is likely associated with the aforementioned X2.7 flare from AR4087. Modelling indicates this CME does not contain an Earth-directed component. A second northeast-directed CME was observed, visible in coronagraph imagery from 14/1136UT. This CME is considered to be associated with the M7.7 flare. Modelling indicates this CME is also not Earth-directed. A northwest-directed CME visible at 14/0624UT is considered to be a farside event and is not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-May increased, ranging from 355 to 435 km/s and is currently near 425 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -10 to +7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 15-17 May. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: G0 Estimated Indices 14 May : A K Australian Region 12 32223341 Cocos Island 9 32222330 Darwin 13 3333323- Townsville 13 2322334- Learmonth 14 3232334- Alice Springs 11 22223341 Gingin 19 42214452 Canberra 11 22124332 Kennaook Cape Grim 15 2212444- Hobart 13 2212434- Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May : Macquarie Island 18 21345342 Casey 17 44323341 Mawson 34 64423364 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May : Darwin 61 (Active) Townsville 44 (Unsettled) Learmonth 56 (Unsettled) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 2 (Quiet) Canberra 2 (Quiet) Hobart 89 (Minor storm) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A Fredericksburg 12 Planetary 16 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K Fredericksburg 9 Planetary 0 2222 2233 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 15 May 8 G0 16 May 5 G0 17 May 10 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 14-May, with an isolated period of G1 observed at Gingin. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-17 May. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 14 May Fair-poor Normal-fair Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair 16 May Normal Normal Normal 17 May Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-May were mostly normal at high latitudes, and fair to poor at at middle and low latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 15-17 May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 14 May 89 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Depressed by 20% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 45% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 15% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Apr 123 May 113 Jun 111 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 15 May 80 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values 16 May 100 Near predicted monthly values 17 May 100 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 14 May and is current for 14-16 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 14-May were depressed by 15-45% during local night and were near predicted monthly values during local day. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be 15-20% depressed on 15-May, improving to near predicted monthly values over 16-17 May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 13 May Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B6.3 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 68300 K Bz: 5 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------