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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Normal green ION: Normal green
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Thursday, Feb 02 2023 08:22 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 01 Feb 2023 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2023 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 01 Feb: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 134/88 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb Activity R0 R0 R0 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 140/94 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Feb was at the R0 level, with mostly low level C-class flares. The largest flare was a C5.7 at 01/2248UT from an active region beyond the western limb. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3207 (S11E51, beta) has exhibited growth in its trailer spots over the 24-hour period. A new unnumbered region recently appeared at N27E68 (beta) and has shown minor growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 02-04 Feb. A northwest CME was observed, visible in LASCO C3 coronagraph imagery from 01/0754UT. This CME is associated with a prominence eruption visible in GOES-SUVI imagery from 01/0601UT. The bulk of this material is from the farside and thus this CME is not considered geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Feb was initially elevated with a declining trend, until a weak shock was detected at 01/1540UT. Since this time, the solar wind has been increasing. The solar wind ranged from 345 to 485 km/s, and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -10 nT. A period of sustained southward IMF conditions began at 01/2153UT and is ongoing. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease over 02-04 Feb due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: G0 Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K Australian Region 4 10101232 Cocos Island 4 01100232 Darwin 5 20100233 Townsville - -------- Learmonth 7 11101333 Alice Springs 4 10000232 Gingin 4 10001232 Canberra 4 00011232 Hobart 5 11111132 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb : Macquarie Island 2 01021021 Casey 8 23212132 Mawson 14 34211225 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville NA Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 2 (Quiet) Hobart 6 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A Fredericksburg 4 Planetary 5 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 8 1222 1332 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 02 Feb 12 G0 03 Feb 5 G0 04 Feb 5 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 01-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 02-04 Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 01 Feb Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair 03 Feb Normal Normal Normal 04 Feb Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 02-04 Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 01 Feb 112 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Enhanced by 20% during local day. Enhanced by 50% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jan 119 Feb 75 Mar 76 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 02 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 03 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 04 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 01-Feb were near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at several Australian sites. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 02-04 Feb. Sporadic E is possible during local night, affecting lower frequencies. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 31 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B7.5 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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