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FORECAST SOL: Moderate yellow MAG: Moderate yellow ION: Moderate yellow
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Friday, Feb 23 2024 10:23 UT

Daily Report

(last updated 22 Feb 2024 23:29 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2024 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW ** ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 22 Feb: R3 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors X1.9 21/2307UT probable all West Pacific X1.6 0632UT probable all Mid East/Indian M4.7 2046UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American X6.3 2234UT confirmed all West Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 173/127 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Feb was R3, with solar region AR3590(N17E28, beta-gamma-delta) producing an X6.3, an X1.7 and M4.8 X-ray flares. The solar radio burst emissions of the X1.7 flare were very weak. The solar radio burst signature of the X6 flare is unknown at this stage. Intermediate spots of this region have shown some redistribution in the past 24 hours with some development below the main leader spot. AR3590 remains and large complex region and further flare activity is expected. There are currently two numbered sunspot regions on the disk and a new unnumbered region. The other numbered solar region AR3586(N29W31, alpha) is a simple single spot and has remained flare quiet. The unnumbered region is most likely the return of AR3575 with only a presumed leader spot currently visible. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 22-Feb. There is an increasing chance for an S1 solar radiation storm over coming days as AR3590 progresses further across the solar disk to a more western longitude. Solar activity is expected to be R2-R3 over 23-25 Feb. No new Earth directed CMEs were observed. Todays X1.7 and yesterdays X1.8 flare from AR3590 were not associated with CMEs or radiation storms. The X6.3 flare will be checked for any associated CME as imagery becomes available. The M4.8 flare was a short duration flare reducing the likelihood of an associated CME and coronagraph imagery will also be checked for any associated CME with this flare event. Some minor flare activity has been observed at solar latitude N05 on the eastern solar limb. The solar wind speed was steady and slow, ranging between 299 and 357 km/s and is currently near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind is expected to be near background levels over 23-Feb. A weak to moderate shock is expected in the solar wind late on 24-Feb/early 25-Feb from yesterdays CME/filament eruption. A small isolated coronal hole centred at S20E10 is approaching solar central meridian. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: G0 Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K Australian Region 4 22210112 Cocos Island 2 12210010 Darwin 5 21211113 Townsville 5 11211213 Learmonth 4 22210102 Alice Springs 4 22210112 Gingin 6 22310212 Canberra 5 12210113 Hobart 4 12211112 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb : Macquarie Island 3 12220100 Casey 13 34432112 Mawson 9 34222211 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 2 (Quiet) Hobart 2 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 6 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K Fredericksburg 3 Planetary 2 1000 0211 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 23 Feb 6 G0 24 Feb 16 G0, with G1 periods possible late in UT day 25 Feb 25 G1 periods during first half of the UT day COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 22 February and is current for 24-25 Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian and Antarctica regions on UT day 22-Feb. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-Feb and most of 24-Feb. A CME component arrival is expected late 24-Feb to early 25-Feb from a recent filament eruption. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to G1 on 25-Feb, with the chance fo G2 periods during the first half of 25-Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 22 Feb Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 23 Feb Normal Normal Normal 24 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair 25 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair COMMENT: A strong fadeout impacted HF communications in the southwest Pacific region at 22/2234UT. Further fadeouts are likely on daylight HF circuits. With respect to ionospheric frequencies of support, HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Feb were normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 23-24 Feb. Moderately degraded HF conditions for middle to high latitudes are expected for 25-Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 22 Feb 145 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 55% during local night. Enhanced by 35% after local dawn. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 25% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20% during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jan 144 Feb 108 Mar 108 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 23 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced 24 Feb 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced 25 Feb 85 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 22 February and is current for 22-24 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-Feb were near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced in the Australian region. A strong HF fadeout was observed in association with the X6 flare 22/2234UT impacting the southwest pacific region. Further HF fadeouts are expected. Ionospheric amplitude scintillation was observed 22/1346-1410UT at Weipa. Weak phase scintillation was observed at Darwin and Weipa 22/1100-1500UT. Sporadic E was observed during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 23-24 Feb. Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected on 25-Feb for the southern Australian region due to an anticipated CME component arrival. Northern Australian region MUFs are expected to remain near normal. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 21 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.0 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 52100 K Bz: 4 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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