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FORECAST SOL: Normal green MAG: Disturbed red ION: Moderate yellow
HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, Aug 15 2022 00:50 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 14 Aug 2022 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW ** ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 14 Aug: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 126/79 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected 10.7cm/SSN 124/77 124/77 122/75 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Aug was at the R0 level, with several C-class flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3076 (S15W20, beta-gamma), AR3078 (S26E03, beta) and AR3081 (N12E28, beta) have shown spot development over the 24 hour period. AR3079 (S10W41, beta) was responsible for the largest C-class flare and has shown decay in its trailer spots. A new region has appeared on the solar disk (N22W20, alpha) and is yet to be numbered. AR3074 (S16W55, alpha) is stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 15-17 Aug, with a chance of R1. A partial halo CME is visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 14/1253UT. An eruption is visible in SDO imagery from 14/1148UT around S20W18. This is concurrent with a long duration C2.4 flare at 14/1235UT around AR3076, and a Type II radio burst from 15/1204UT to 15/1219UT. A disappearing filament is visible in H-Alpha imagery from 14/1223UT between N19W10 and N18W20. Modelling indicates this CME will impact Earth on early 17-Aug. Two eruptions associated with AR3078 are visible in GOES SUVI imagery. The first from 14/0327UT is associated with a southward CME visible in LASCO C2 imagery from 14/0424UT. This CME is not considered geoeffective. The second eruption is visible from 14/1851UT. No associated CMEs are visible in available imagery, further analysis will be performed when more imagery becomes available. No other geoeffective CMEs have been observed in available imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Aug ranged between 468 to 530 km/s, and is currently near 490 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease over 15 Aug as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects abate. The solar wind speed is expected to increase on 16-17 Aug due to the effects of a high speed wind stream from an equatorial coronal hole which is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position and the expected arrival on 17-Aug of CMEs first observed on 13-Aug and 14-Aug. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: G0 Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K Australian Region 2 22111000 Darwin 3 22111001 Learmonth 7 2------- Alice Springs 2 22110000 Gingin 2 22110000 Canberra 2 22111000 Hobart 2 22111000 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug : Macquarie Island 2 22110000 Casey 8 33321111 Mawson 14 54422100 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville NA Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 2 (Quiet) Canberra 2 (Quiet) Hobart 12 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 7 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K Fredericksburg 10 Planetary 9 1332 2223 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 15 Aug 5 G0 16 Aug 8 G0 17 Aug 30 G1, chance of G2 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 14-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-16 Aug, G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected in the Australian region on 17-Aug, with a chance of G2 due to the expected impact of CMEs first observed on 13-Aug and 14-Aug combined with the effects of an equatorial coronal hole high speed wind stream. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 14 Aug Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 15 Aug Normal Normal Normal 16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair 17 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 15-16 Aug. Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle to high latitudes from 17-Aug, due to the expected arrival of CMEs first observed on 13-Aug and 14-Aug combined with the effects of an equatorial coronal hole high speed wind stream. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 14 Aug 63 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Depressed by 35% during local night. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Jul 65 Aug 67 Sep 68 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 15 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values 16 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values 17 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Aug were mostly near predicted monthly values, with mildly depressed conditions in the Northern Australian region during local night. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values over 15-16 Aug. Mildly degraded conditions are possible for the southern Australian region from 17-Aug due to the expected arrival of CMEs first observed on 13-Aug and 14-Aug combined with the effects of an equatorial coronal hole high speed wind stream. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 13 Aug Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: B5.5 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 395000 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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