Daily Report

(last updated 02 Oct 2023 23:31 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2023 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 02 Oct: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M1.9 1246UT possible lower European Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 158/112 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 158/112 157/111 155/109 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Oct was at the R1 level, due to a M1.9 flare at 02/1246UT from AR3455 (N25E61, beta). There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3452 (N12E34, beta) is the largest region on the solar disk and has shown growth in its intermediate spots over the UT day. AR3451 (N17E36, beta) and AR3453 (N12E01, beta) have both exhibited some mild spot development. AR3450 (S18E03, beta) has shown decay in its intermediate spots. Newly numbered AR3455 has shown slight growth since appearing on the solar disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. The background level of X-ray flux has declined over the UT day but remains at low C-class levels. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 03-05 Oct. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The aforementioned M1.9 flare produced by AR3455 appeared to be eruptive in SDO imagery, however no associated CME was observed in coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Oct was mostly stable, ranging from 340 to 395 km/s and is currently near 355 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. There is a chance of a mild increase in the solar wind speed on 03-Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole in the solar northern hemisphere. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: G0 Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K Australian Region 4 12121111 Cocos Island 2 11111110 Darwin 4 22112111 Townsville 5 12212122 Learmonth 6 21222122 Alice Springs 3 11111111 Gingin 4 11121121 Canberra 4 12121112 Hobart 5 12221112 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct : Macquarie Island 6 22141001 Casey 9 33312122 Mawson 14 53313222 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Hobart 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 9 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K Fredericksburg 9 Planetary 12 4212 3333 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 03 Oct 10 G0 04 Oct 8 G0 05 Oct 6 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 02-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 03-05 Oct. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 02 Oct Normal Normal Normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair 04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair 05 Oct Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on 02-Oct. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 03-05 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 02 Oct 122 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Enhanced by 50% during local night. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day and night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 15% during local night. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Sep 104 Oct 98 Nov 96 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 03 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 04 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 05 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 103 was issued on 2 October and is current for 2-4 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 02-Oct were near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 03-05 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 01 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+04 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.3 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 200000 K Bz: 0 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------