Daily Report

(last updated 03 Jun 2023 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2023 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 03 Jun: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 165/119 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Jun was at R0, with no significant solar flares. There are currently 7 numbered sunspots on the solar disk. AR3323 (S08E33, beta-gamma) has shown some development in its intermediate and trailer spots, although minor. All other sunspots are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 04-06 Jun. No significant CMEs were observed on UT day 03-Jun. A large solar filament is centered near S30W30, which is considered geoeffective. While the filament appears stable it will be monitored closely for any eruption. The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Jun was on a general declining trend and ranged between 438 to 297 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range was +7 to -4 nT. Two coronal holes which featured in yesterday's forecast have failed to connect with Earth, and an increase in solar wind speed from these sources is therefore unlikely now. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at background levels over 04-06 Jun, although mild increases are possible on 04-Jun if there are any coronal hole influences. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: G0 Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K Australian Region 1 11110001 Cocos Island 1 11110001 Darwin 2 22110001 Townsville 4 22210012 Learmonth 1 11110001 Alice Springs 1 11100001 Gingin 1 11100000 Canberra 1 11100001 Hobart 0 10000001 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun : Macquarie Island 0 00000000 Casey 3 22210000 Mawson 3 21110003 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Hobart 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A Fredericksburg 10 Planetary 13 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K Fredericksburg 8 Planetary 5 2220 1012 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 04 Jun 8 G0 05 Jun 6 G0 06 Jun 6 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 03-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 04-06 Jun. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 03 Jun Poor-fair Normal Normal-fair PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 04 Jun Fair Normal Normal-fair 05 Jun Fair Normal Normal-fair 06 Jun Normal Normal Normal COMMENT: Hf communication conditions on UT day were mostly normal to fair. Degraded conditions were observed at low latitude regions, particularly during local night hours. HF communication conditions are expected to be normal to fair over 04-06 Jun, with fair conditions persisting in low latitude regions. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 03 Jun 89 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index May 98 Jun 88 Jul 87 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 04 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values 05 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values 06 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies on UT day 03-Jun were mostly near predicted values in the Australian region. Strong range spread was observed in Brisbane, Townsville and Cocos Islands during local night hours. Sporadic-E was observed at Learmonth and Cocos Islands. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 04-06 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 02 Jun Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.3 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 52700 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------