Daily Report

(last updated 24 Jan 2025 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2025 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW ** ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 24 Jan: R1 Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors M2.7 2104UT possible lower East Pacific/ North American Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 205/156 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 205/156 205/156 200/152 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Jan was R1 due to an M2.7 flare from solar region AR3961 (S10W60, beta). The flare was from the large leader spot in this region and the trailer spots of AR3961 have continued to decay. This region is approaching the western solar limb. AR3971 (N12W46, beta-gamma) produced C class flares. Other regions are relatively small. Minor region AR3967 (S17W25, beta) also produced C class flare activity. There are currently 8 numbered regions on the visible solar disk. Currently the eastern solar hemisphere is devoid of significant solar regions, with a new unnumbered small region emerging in the northeast solar quadrant. Solar plasma arches were observed in SDO imagery during the interval 24/1100-1300UT on the southeast solar limb at solar latitude S20 suggesting a region may soon rotate onto the disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 25-27 Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 24-Jan. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 25-27 Jan. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed in LASCO imagery. A bright non Earth directed CME was observed off the southeast solar limb from 24/1224UT, probably in association with the southeast solar limb plasma arch activity observed in SDO imagery. A very faint west directed CME was observed from 24/2024UT preceding the M2.7 flare event. This CME could not be time correlated to on disk activity. Subsequent LASCO imagery will be checked for any possible CME associated with the M2.7 flare though the far western location of AR3961 would greatly reduce any geomagnetic effectiveness. A coronal hole spanning from the solar equator to solar middle latitudes is at solar longitude E60. The solar wind on UT day 24-Jan was moderately elevated and steady with a slight declining trend. The solar wind ranged from 487 to 418 km/s and is currently at 460 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component range was +5 to -4 nT. The first CME arrival expected for mid to late in the UT day on 24-Jan has not eventuated. The ACE EPAM CME precursor data channel has remained flat in the past 24 hours suggesting this CME may have missed the Earth. Another CME arrival is expected on 25-Jan, which may arrive later than initially expected. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: G0 Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K Australian Region 4 12212012 Cocos Island 3 -2112001 Darwin 3 11102112 Townsville 6 12212113 Learmonth 4 21112112 Alice Springs 4 12202012 Gingin 5 22112022 Canberra 4 12212012 Kennaook Cape Grim 6 22213012 Hobart 5 12213012 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan : Macquarie Island 5 12312002 Casey 20 45532222 Mawson 15 23423234 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan : Darwin 6 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled) Canberra 41 (Unsettled) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A Fredericksburg 9 Planetary 10 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K Fredericksburg 7 Planetary 8 2101 2332 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 25 Jan 28 G1-G2 26 Jan 18 G1 27 Jan 10 G0 COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 23 January and is current for 24-25 Jan. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 24-Jan. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. The anticipated glancing blow CME arrival expected mid to late in the UT day on 24-Jan has not eventuated. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to increase to G1-G2 on 25-Jan as another CME arrival is expected. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline on 26-Jan. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 24 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 25 Jan Normal Fair Fair-poor 26 Jan Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair 27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 24-Jan were fair to normal. The anticipated CME arrival on 24-Jan did not eventuate. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be initially normal on 25-Jan then becoming degraded for middle to high latitudes due to another expected CME arrival. Conditions may begin improving on 26-Jan. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 24 Jan 111 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values during local day. Enhanced by 55% during local night. Niue Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values. Southern Australian Region: Depressed by 20% during local day. Near predicted monthly values during local night. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Dec 132 Jan 119 Feb 116 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 25 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 26 Jan 80 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 27 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 23 January and is current for 24-26 Jan. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 24-Jan were near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced for the northern Australian region and depressed 15-20% for the southern Australian region. Spread F and sporadic E was observed during local night hours at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values for most of the UT day 25-Jan and 10-20% depressed on 26-Jan, due to an anticipated CME arrival on 25-Jan. The CME arrival expected on 24-Jan did not eventuate. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 23 Jan Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.8 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: -1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------