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HomeSpace WeatherForecastsDaily Report Monday, May 27 2024 09:43 UT
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Daily Report

(last updated 26 May 2024 23:30 UT)

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2024 FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity 26 May: R0 Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 156/110 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 27 May 28 May 29 May Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible 10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109 COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-May was at R0. Solar region AR3691(N25E56, beta-gamma) has shown growth in its northern leader spots and some spot redistribution but has now lost its small delta spot. This region has produced several C class flares in the past 24 hours, the largest a C7.4 at 26/1706UT. Small solar region AR3690(N17E40, beta-gamma) has developed very small trailer spots of mixed magnetic polarity. Solar region AR3685(S14W59, beta), a mostly stable bipolar region has shown a mix of growth and decay of its small surrounding spots and smaller nearby AR3686(S08W48, beta) trailer spots are now in decay. Small solar region AR3692(S10E08, beta) has continued to grow. There are currently 6 numbered solar regions and three small unnumbered regions at N27E66, N08E74 and N08E71. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over 27-29 May, with a chance of R2. A large previously flare active solar region (designated AR3664 on its previous disk transit) appears to be returning and is just behind the southeast solar limb, though the background GOES X-ray flux has yet to show an upward trend. This regions evolution during its far side transit is largely unknown and will become evident after the region rotates onto the visible solar disk. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A narrow southwest directed CME was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 26/2112UT appears associated with activity on the southwest solar limb. The solar wind speed on UT day 26-May was slightly variable, ranging from 340 to 460 km/s and is currently near 349 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed may mildly increase over 27-28 May due to several mild coronal hole wind stream influences. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: G0 Estimated Indices 26 May : A K Australian Region 6 12113221 Cocos Island 4 12112120 Darwin 4 12112121 Townsville 7 12123222 Learmonth 5 12113220 Alice Springs 6 12113221 Gingin 5 12113120 Canberra 4 02013220 Kennaook Cape Grim 5 02013221 Hobart 5 12013220 Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May : Macquarie Island 6 01014221 Casey 9 23322231 Mawson 18 34223335 Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May : Darwin 0 (Quiet) Townsville 0 (Quiet) Learmonth 0 (Quiet) Alice Springs 0 (Quiet) Gingin 0 (Quiet) Canberra 0 (Quiet) Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic survey flight-line data. NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Japan. Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A Fredericksburg 9 Planetary 9 Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K Fredericksburg 6 Planetary 6 2111 1223 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST Date Ap Conditions 27 May 12 G0 28 May 8 G0 29 May 8 G0 COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 26-May. Conditions in the Antarctic region were mostly G0 with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 27-29 May, with a slight chance of G1 on 27-May due to possible weak coronal hole influences. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 26 May Normal Normal Fair-normal PCA Event : No event. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST Latitude Band Date Low Middle High 27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair 28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair 29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 26-May were mostly normal, with mild degradations at middle to high latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 27-29 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Date T index 26 May 115 Observed Australian Regional MUFs Cocos Island Region: Near predicted monthly values. Niue Island Region: Enhanced by 15% during local day. Depressed by 20% during local night. Northern Australian Region: Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced during local day. Depressed by 15-20% at times during local night. Southern Australian Region: Mostly near predicted monthly values. Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson): Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. Monthly T index: Month T index Apr 125 May 114 Jun 116 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST Date T index MUFs 27 May 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 28 May 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 29 May 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 26 May and is current for 26-28 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 26-May were generally near predicted monthly values. Darwin MUFs were 30% enhanced during the local day. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours. Brief ionospheric equatorial scintillation was observed at Niue 26/0832-0850UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 27-29 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. ----------------------------------------------------------- 5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY GOES satellite data for 25 May Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence) Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1% Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. X-ray background: C1.2 DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: 1 nT (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA) -----------------------------------------------------------

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